Well our lake effect event is unfolding Sunday evening. What was a spray of lake effect rain and snow showers off the southeast end of Lake Ontario during the afternoon has now consolidated into a couple of bands over Oswego, southern Lewis and northern Oswego counties.
The set up is still the same as we mentioned in yesterday's blog: cold air at 5,000 feet and more so at 10,000 feet this evening. In addition, there is a jet stream disturbance that is approaching us from the west and also we are getting a contribution from Lake Huron. This all spells some heavy snowfall rates of at least an inch an hour over the counties I mentioned above. This accumulation map to the right takes us through the morning commute Monday. We purposely drew that 5-10 inch contour to include the higher elevations of the southern Tug Hill. Like yesterday, I still feel there will be some spots in this area that check in Monday morning with more than a foot of snow.
You may notice that we have a bit of that white contour sneaking into northern Onondaga and Madison Counties. There should be some minor shifts north and south of this band (which is typical of lake effect). We think there is a chance that for a time later this evening the squalls may briefly drop south, impacting Baldwinsville, Cicero, Brideport and Rome. That why we included these areas in the lighter accumulation.
The next question was when Monday to bring the squalls south toward Syracuse. The data I've looked at today has kind of converged on close to lunch time here in Syracuse. When that happens, the squalls won't be nearly as strong as they will be tonight. Still, there could be a light accumulation of snow in and around Syracuse midday Monday.
From later Monday into Tuesday the winds in the lower atmosphere will be almost northerly so while there could still be an additional accumulation from Syracuse west into the Finger Lakes there should be rather light. We'll probably update you on that tomorrow.
Stay tuned later this evening. I'll try to add to this blog if there is any new information or snow totals to pass along.
